Delphi Effect

The Delphi effect is described by Eric S Raymond in his book, "The Cathedral and the Bazaar" as follows:

"Sociologists discovered that the averaged opinion of a mass of equally expert or equally ignorant observers is quite a bit more reliable a predictor than the opinion of a single randomly-chosen one of the observers."

Between Hope and Fear has an interesting entry on Delphi Effect. I’m posting some parts of it here:

The Delphi Effect appears to be affecting news gathering and analysis, and the promulgation of knowledge in general. There are armies of volunteers brought together on blogs whose averaged opinions and knowledge create a formidable challenge to traditional cathedral-style news organizations. The trend extends into other areas of knowledge, such as the Wikipedia—a collaboratively developed free encyclopedia that is created and updated by its users. No article is finished in the Wikipedia. It has a self-healing quality that gradually extracts false data. The Delphi Effect keeps the Wikipedia current, accurate and dynamic. Wikipedia’s competitors are centuries-old cathedral-style knowledge bureaucracies like Encyclopedia Brittanica. They spend millions maintaining their knowledge base, releasing it in large, expensive sets once a year. Wikipedia costs little to maintain, is far more dynamic, current, and perhaps covers a broader knowledge gamut.

We are seeing the Delphi Effect route around faulty news evidence from CBS just as it does buggy code, rendered anachronistic. Competing against CBS’s ‘cathedral’ style of news gathering and reporting is a vibrant, stealthy and reliable watchdog: blogs. Where CBS stonewalls over time, blogs self-correct, nearly instantaneously.

We should expect to see the Delphi Effect continue to challenge traditional strongholds of knowledge. We should also be aware of potential pitfalls with Blogospheric news. There are questions that should be considered as we move into the Delphi Age:

• Is Al Qaeda an example of the Delphi Effect applied to extremists? Does this account for much of their power to challenge sovereign nations?
• If so, is a sovereign country a ‘cathedral’ to the terrorist’s ‘bazaar’? In other words, can Delphi-style terrorists be defeated by traditional top-down applications of power?
• Dan Rather’s ‘cathedral’ career is on the line; is there equivalent accountability in the Blogosphere, where most users are anonymous?
• Is the war on terror a war against asymmetrical opposition? If so, how can we embrace asymmetry in technological and social development while we fight it’s darkest sociological side-effects?
• Does the power of evaluation created by blogs always serve the cause of truth? What about Al Quaeda’s blogs, or ones in the Arab world? No doubt that in those blogospheres Jews are pigs and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion is the de facto truth. Can the Delphi Effect work against itself in a bazaar composed of closed minds laboring under a consensus of delusion?
• Can the Blogosphere become the ultimate medium for a new kind of demagoguery? With over 100,000 readers a day, could someone like Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs organize the ultimate flash mobs, if so inclined? That’s real power in this era. What are the limits of power available to bloggers?

We live in momentous times.

So why am I writing about this?

Well that’s because I recently bought the domain name – http://www.delphieffect.com

I don’t have anything up there as of yet but I might add something soon. I’m still brain-storming for ideas. Any suggestions?

Tags: opinion, web